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The loss in the Tanjung Piai by-election marks the fourth loss out of nine by-elections for Pakatan Harapan (PH) since GE14. More pressingly perhaps, this is the second failed defence for a seat won in GE14. Far from being an isolated case, the government must recognise that these results are the Rakyat’s verdict of their performance thus far. And that verdict? Buck up or step down. 

Comparing the losses 

Cameron Highlands by-election
The January by-election in Cameron Highlands was the first loss for PH. This loss, although expected, is notable as it indicated that corruption is not the most important issue concerning voters in Cameron Highlands, with BN winning again despite their former candidate being disqualified due to corrupt practises in GE14.

Semenyih by-election
The by-election for the Selangor State Legislative Assembly seat of Semenyih in March marked PH’s second loss. In GE14, the seat was won by PH with a large majority of 9,000 votes but lost in the by-election by 1,914 votes. 

Semenyih is mainly composed of middle class workers, its problems are ones that the majority of the Malaysian urban population faces; inadequate improvements for current infrastructures and ineffective solutions to tackle rising living costs. The loss as such is attributed to PH’s lack of focus on these issues, where they instead:

• Continuously played the blame game

• Discredited the PAS leadership and invoke negative connotations of Najib’s association in the BN campaign. 

This election should have been seen as a referendum by the people on PH’s performance but unfortunately the saying, “once bitten, twice shy” is a saying which PH did not heed in the lead up before the Rantau by-election.

Rantau by-election
This by-election was the result of the decision of the uncontested election for the Negeri Sembilan State Legislative Assembly of Rantau in GE14 being null and void. This came from a legal contest by PKR’s candidate Dr Stream, who was not issued a pass by the Election Commission hence preventing him from entering the nomination centre. 

Despite this area being a BN stronghold, BN’s candidate Mohamad Hasan shows his humility in recognising that he needs voters to believe in BN being “an effective opposition team to conduct checks and balances towards the current government.” In acknowledging that the people of Rantau hold the power in his re-election, he clearly appeals to the local constituents. 

The margin in which BN won by was higher than expected, at 4,510 votes more than PH.

Even when accounting for the electorate composition of 55 percent Malays, PH’s inability to present convincing solutions to the constituents of Rantau and to stick to election pledges led to their defeat. The latter is evident in Mr Kiandee of Bersatu remaining as the chairman of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) chairman – despite the pledge that the chairman should be an opposition parliamentarian. 

Tanjung Piai by-election – Looking at the factors in PH’s crushing loss
The by-election in Tanjung Piai was caused by the sudden death of Bersatu MP Mohamed Farid Md Rafik. Local religious figure Karmaine Sardini from Bersatu represented PH against former MP Wee Jeck Seng who held the seat from 2008 to 2018. BN-PAS coalition won by a landslide majority of 15,086, which is 38.9 percent more votes than PH.

Think-tanks and analysts expected this to be a tight contest between PH and BN. In a survey by Institut Darul Ehsan, they found that PH heavily depended on the Chinese support in Tanjung Piai, with 64 percent voting for PH during GE14. Only 32 percent of Malays voted for PH whilst 57 percent voted for BN in comparison. PH managed to win by a slim 524-vote majority in GE14. 

In the same survey, 83 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for the same party as they did in GE14. However, only 41 percent of Chinese voters said they would vote the same. In contrast, 58 percent of Malay voters said they would vote the same. 

Historically, loyal UMNO Malay voters prefer a Malay-Muslim candidate. With the PH Candidate being Malay and BN’s candidate being Chinese, this alone could have led to the prediction that PH might win by a slim majority similar to GE14. All party machinery from PH had been thrown behind its candidate, with leaders including PM Mahathir Mohamad and PKR President Anwar Ibrahim campaigning during the lead up to the election. 

The BN-PAS coalition used the same strategy seen in past by-elections, mainly campaigning for the protection of Malay-Muslims rights, capitalising on concerns that Malay rights are being marginalised under PH. This focus on the BN-PAS coalition on the Malay demographic led to the large swing observed of the Malay vote from PH to BN. 

However, the swing towards BN amongst Chinese voters is more interesting. Professor James Chin, the Director of the Asia Institute Tasmania, attributed the swing to their “anger towards DAP”. Such anger can be attributed to factors such as:

• Lack of attention on the rising costs of living 
• Education Ministry’s plan to introduce Jawi calligraphy in schools 
• Failure to fulfil the election promise of recognising the Unified Examination Certificate

Why should Harapan be concerned following this election?
This by-election on its own does not impact PH’s ability to form both the federal and state government. But this election is a cumulation of the underlying factors that contributed to their loss in the three other by-elections analysed.

The underlying factors are as follows:

• Rising costs of living
• Slow implementation or even a “U-turn” on election promises
• Lack of focus towards local needs 
• No significant changes in the political culture under PH 

The constant blame placed on the former government and the focus on eradicating corruption is no longer resonating with the general public. If priority is not placed on

• Making impactful changes to benefit the everyday Malaysian

• Fostering trust in their ability to bring about the change promised in 2018

PH can expect to see an outright rejection by the general public in the next election.

Although the focus on eradicating political corruption and racial politics is significant, this problem is one that is not solved by rushed solutions but rather outgrown over time with maturity. 

We as a nation have not been able to focus on facing Malaysia’s problems as one race. This in part is attributed to the narrative of race and religion baiting as a campaigning strategy among parties. This reflects on our inability to be mature in our politics with low blows being preferred over concrete ideas to help move Malaysia in the right direction.

Cultivating such maturity will take time and PH must focus on inducing an environment to facilitate such growth.